New Ways to Read the Economy

SAN FRANCISCO—When the city's top economist needs a rough prediction of sales tax revenues, he watches the number of subway passengers emerging from the Powell Street Station on Saturdays.
Ted Egan, chief economist in the San Francisco Controller's Office, said he could wait six months for California to release the detailed sales-tax data he needs for city revenue projections. But it's quicker to look at passenger tallies from the station closest to the Union Square shopping district, which generates roughly 10% of the city's sales-tax revenue. The Bay Area Rapid Transit District releases the data within three days, he said: "Why should I have to wait?" Mr. Egan is among a growing number of economists and urban planners who scour for economic clues in unconventional urban data—oddball measures of how people are moving, spending and working.

A Shrinking Trade Deficit, at Least for Now

The New York Times - THE American trade deficit is collapsing at the fastest rate ever, a testament to the ability of a worldwide recession to sharply reduce global economic imbalances that had grown to unprecedented size.

The United States estimated this week that the trade deficit, as a percent of gross domestic product, fell to 2.4 percent in the first quarter of this year.

That is the smallest deficit in a decade, as can be seen in the accompanying chart. It is less than half of the deficit shown in the first quarter of 2008, when the American recession was new and not yet devastating other economies.

Few countries have reported first-quarter data as yet, and the American number will be revised. But what appears to be happening is that much of the pain from the fall in American consumption is being felt in other countries, since exporters in those countries supplied the products that Americans are no longer buying.

Declining trade deficits in the United States are likely to be matched by falling trade surpluses in countries that have historically been net exporters. That is one reason Germany’s economy appears to be faltering badly and China has embarked on a huge economic stimulus program.

The shrinking trade deficit is not being caused by a rebound in American exports. They are falling as well, but not nearly as much as imports are declining.http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/02/business/02charts.html

Consumer Confidence Rebounding in April

The Wall Street Journal - The University of Michigan's reading of consumer confidence climbed in April to its highest point since the financial crisis hit in September, though it remains at historically low levels.

The index rose to 61.9 from 57.3 in March. Consumers expressed more confidence in buying houses and cars because of low prices or discounts. The index fell to a three-decade low of 55.3 in November after credit markets froze and stocks tumbled.

The one-year outlook for inflation deteriorated to 3%, from 2% in March, while the five-year inflation outlook stood at 2.7%, from 2.6% the month before. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124002391385731451.html