The Wall Street Journal - Prospects for an economic recovery this year are fading.
Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey, while still mostly projecting growth in the U.S. gross domestic product by the third quarter, largely agree that a "second-half recovery"—a scenario that has been a common feature of most 2009 outlooks—is looking much less likely now than it did a few months ago. Recent data showing just how sharply growth in the U.S. and abroad has declined in the final months of 2008 have cast a deepening shadow over 2009.
As recently as September, economists, on average, thought the U.S. would see annualized GDP growth of 1.2% in the first three months of this year; now, they see a 4.6% decline. Forecasts for the second quarter, the April-June period, have seen a similar shift, from a 1.9% growth forecast to a 1.5% decline, based on the 52 economists who participated in the Journal's February survey.
The average forecast now sees growth in the third quarter at 0.7%, less than half the rate expected last fall. The fourth-quarter picture has also darkened, but just slightly, to growth of 1.9% from the 2.1% seen in November. Five economists see growth declining through the fourth quarter of 2009; they say the current consensus outlook, which says the recession will end in August as GDP growth returns positive, is far too optimistic.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123445757254678091.html
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